May 4, 2012

XLE - Energy sector

With the large drop in oil today (down 2.5%-4% depending on whether you are looking at Brent crude or WTI crude), I decided to take a look at an energy sector long.  The XLE has been beaten up almost as much, currently down about 2.4%.  However, it bottomed today about 68, and as you can see on the hourly chart below, that's become a recent support level.

However, if you notice, the bollinger bands have gotten very wide the last few days (higher volatility), so I didn't want to just buy a call.  Considered a put credit spread, but I only want to hold that a couple weeks (to May expiration), and I'd like to stay in this trade a while longer to catch some upside.  So I bought the June 70 call and sold the May weekly 70 call (expiring next week), and I will continue to sell weeklies as long as I'm not assigned (or XLE drops considerably).  My target is about 72, near the recent hourly high above, and more importantly, the resistance level on the daily chart below.

I'll try to do better with my updates and keep you updated on this trade.

Another Disappointing Jobs Number

The market is down hard today after this morning's disappointing jobs report.  Currently the S&P500 seems to be holding at 1370, but it also paused earlier this morning at 1375, moved back up, and then reversed right back lower to its current 1370 level.  I am considering putting long money to work here (SPY vertical spreads), but will wait to see if this is another fakeout like what happened between 10:30 - 11AM.