Verizon

Added to VZ long this morning after a few down days.  The purchase now makes it my largest position ahead of AAPL.

What I'm Holding

These are my current longs, in order of largest to smallest size (based on Tuesday close):
AAPL, VZ, COP, MCHP, DD, ESV, IAU, DE, WY, BGS, SLB, MWE, CLX, HAL

That's more positions than I'd like to have.  Most likely candidates to get out of are DE into continued strength, and CLX and HAL as both are January options close to expiration.  I'm also likely to trim some WY and AAPL exposure as both have had a nice run recently.

Back For The New Year

Long time no post.  Just didn't make it a priority to keep up with this last year, but since it's time for everyone to make their resolutions, trying to be a regular blogger will be one of mine.

Quick recap of where my view was at the end of the year.  Slightly bullish with a variety of long positions, but hedged with XLF puts and QQQ and SPY put spreads.  Not a lot of capital was committed to the hedges, only about 1-2% of my total account.  Got washed out of the QQQ and SPY spreads on the big up day on Tuesday and have not put any back on yet.  Both ETF's are holding above their 200-day moving averages, so I'm not ready to go short on them yet.  Also got washed out of some of the XLF puts on Tuesday.

Stopped out of DISCA

I still like DISCA, but was stopped out of my long position this morning.  So I imagine the logical question is, why did I let myself get stopped out?  Sure, I could have canceled or moved the stop, but I could be wrong about the stock.  Stops are there to protect the downside and limit risk in case I've made a mistake on DISCA.

I still have my Feb 35 call on DISCA, and expect to keep that for now.

Re-visiting Priceline (PCLN)

Time to check back in on Priceline - to recap last week, I liked it and was ready to buy (Priceline (PCLN)), but held off because of the chart (PCLN Again).  I wanted to wait and see where it went short term within its 2+ month trading range (hoping it would drop to the bottom of the range for a better entry point).  Here is today's chart:

You will notice that it did finally break out of the range the very day I decided not to go long (and has stayed above since), but the volume (see yellow above) has been lackluster.  To me that's not a solid breakout and should be eyed with caution.  While I still like the stock, I think it's just as likely to drop back below what I view as weak support around $426 in the short term.  Holding off again for now.

Back To Gold Again (IAU)

As mentioned in a post from last week, My Current Gold Position, I'm looking to add to my ETF holding in IAU, but was waiting for some price stabilization after it dropped after the first of the year.  That's happened now, as IAU has closed in an 0.11 cent range since Jan 4th, and it's currently trading only .03 cents above my last buy.  I'm going to buy IAU before the close today.

DISCA Again

DISCA has continued to drop since my last post and is now down over 5% since last Monday and more than 1.5% below from where I bought more on Thursday morning.  Since this is currently my largest position I decided more research was in order (and some of this I should have done already).

To recap, DISCA is trading at a multiple more or less equal to the growth rate, very cheap.  I listened to the 3rd quarter conference call today (from Nov 2nd) and heard didn't hear anything to change my bullish view on the company.  Also took a closer look at the 3rd quarter financials:

• Current ratio is 2.7 vs. a 2.1 ratio at 3rd quarter 2009
• Long tern debt is up only slightly (4% from 3rd quarter 2009)
• 3Q net income was $186 million with only $49 million in interest expense for the quarter - And interest expense was actually down over 24% from 3Q 2009
• Margins were up over 3Q 2009 - 45% vs 43% last year

The decline seems to coincide with a Citigroup conference they participated at last Tuesday, 1/4.  So thinking there must have been bad news I listened to the presentation today, which was a 30+ minute Q&A session.  It was sort of bland, but I didn't hear anything to drive the stock down - on the other hand nothing was said you'd consider "exciting" for the company, and maybe that's what the street was looking for.

We should also look at the chart since I did note last week that it was approaching support at $40, which it has broken through - that $40 is now resistance.  However, I see the next level of support relatively close, around $39, which is also just slightly above the 200 day ema.

My bottom line opinion - I see nothing to change my positive view on the company.  This is yet another buying opportunity, but I do recognize that the stock could have some difficulty trading above the $40 resistance in the short-term.  Also, if you look at the chart above, we're not that far from my stop which I placed a little below the 200 day ema.  Maybe I'll leave my common position alone and go with a call for my next by...?